All posts by Richard

Robin Bain is innocent

I’m sick to death of hearing about evil charlatan David Bain and his odious sock puppet Joe Karam. Unfortunately, my interest in the Bain case has been rekindled by my co-blogger Reed’s report on Fisher’s Report on Binnie’s Report on the David Bain case. I’m writing a response with the title Bayes, Bain and Binnie, which I’ll post soon. Meanwhile, here’s a piece I wrote a few years ago on the 13th anniversary of the Bain murders.

[Reprised from beNZylpiperazine, June 2007.]

10f

13 years ago today, on a cold Dunedin morning, David Bain slaughtered his youngest sister Laniet (2 shots to the head as she lay sleeping, and 1 further shot as she lay gurgling dying), his mother Margaret (1 shot to the head while she lay sleeping), his brother Stephen (a shot through Stephen’s hand, then 1 shot through the head after a prolonged struggle during which David partially strangled Stephen with his own teeshirt) and his younger sister Arawa (1 shot to the head as she prayed or pleaded for mercy, after David’s first shot missed) – all in quick succession.

Lastly, David slaughtered his father Robin (1 shot to the head). But first, David put the washing machine on and went off on his usual morning paper run. Returning, he hid in a curtained alcove in the lounge and calmly waited for his father to enter the house after waking in the caravan outside where he slept. How cold-blooded is that?

Now, of course, David Bain is a free man, and two thirds of New Zealanders believe David Bain is innocent. Stuff.co.nz has delighted us with images of the remorseless killer enjoying life on the outside in the David Bain gallery.

There are far fewer pictures on the web of his dead family members. Google Image Search turned up nothing at all for Arawa or Laniet, and no images of Stephen. A search for images of Margaret produced a single image of David, and a search for images of Robin produced two images, again of David. So I guess when I said there are few fewer pictures… I really meant none at all.

But the exercise wasn’t altogether fruitless. I was introduced to Robin Bain’s namesake, an actress by the name of, er, Robin Bain. And I don’t think she’s innocent…

Don’t ask about the bronze rat

1280px-Bayes'_Theorem_MMB_01

Here’s a story problem about a situation that doctors often encounter:

1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?

What do you think the answer is? If you haven’t encountered this kind of problem before, please take a moment to come up with your own answer before continuing.

If you think it would help, make like a constipated mathematician.

If you get the answer wrong, you’re irrational.

If you click here to find the correct answer, you’re both irrational and lazy.

(Judge not, that ye be not judged? Yeah, I already worked out the correct answer myself, thanks. :-))

Vegetable Man

In the third year of the reign of Jehoiakim king of Judah, Nebuchadnezzar king of Babylon came to Jerusalem and besieged it. And the Lord delivered Jehoiakim king of Judah into his hand, along with some of the articles from the temple of God. These he carried off to the temple of his god in Babylonia and put in the treasure house of his god.

Then the king ordered Ashpenaz, chief of his court officials, to bring into the king’s service some of the Israelites from the royal family and the nobility—young men without any physical defect, handsome, showing aptitude for every kind of learning, well informed, quick to understand, and qualified to serve in the king’s palace. He was to teach them the language and literature of the Babylonians. The king assigned them a daily amount of food and wine from the king’s table. They were to be trained for three years, and after that they were to enter the king’s service.

Among those who were chosen were some from Judah: Daniel, Hananiah, Mishael and Azariah. The chief official gave them new names: to Daniel, the name Belteshazzar; to Hananiah, Shadrach; to Mishael, Meshach; and to Azariah, Abednego.

But Daniel resolved not to defile himself with the royal food and wine, and he asked the chief official for permission not to defile himself this way. Now God had caused the official to show favor and compassion to Daniel, but the official told Daniel, “I am afraid of my lord the king, who has assigned your food and drink. Why should he see you looking worse than the other young men your age? The king would then have my head because of you.”

Daniel then said to the guard whom the chief official had appointed over Daniel, Hananiah, Mishael and Azariah, “Please test your servants for ten days: Give us nothing but vegetables to eat and water to drink. Then compare our appearance with that of the young men who eat the royal food, and treat your servants in accordance with what you see.” So he agreed to this and tested them for ten days.

At the end of the ten days they looked healthier and better nourished than any of the young men who ate the royal food. So the guard took away their choice food and the wine they were to drink and gave them vegetables instead. (NIV)

Mandatory Suicide

Military suicides outnumber combat deaths – economy and leadership to blame

By ROBERT LAURIE – There’s a good chance that this is the most depressing statistic you’ll see all year.

According to a new Army report, as of November, 303 active-duty, Reserve and National Guard soldiers had committed suicide in 2012.  During the same period, 212 men and women in uniform were lost due to combat fatalities in Afghanistan.

It’s depressing, and disgusting.

Our military has sacrificed precious blood and treasure in Afghanistan for an ill-defined, and as such probably unwinnable, war.  They’ve been given an arbitrary withdrawal date which has nothing to do with the accomplishment of any military goal and everything to do with politics.  While they wait to leave, they’re still forced to fight, but their Commander in Chief has offered them little in the way of an objective.

When they finally do earn a ticket home, they return to a broken, barely functional, America.  The economy is in the dumper, jobs are nigh-on impossible to come by, and – as a result of their low pay – former soldiers find themselves in an extraordinarily difficult financial position. All too often, this is leading to depression, substance abuse, and suicide.

Given the lack of leadership, coupled with the reality of the U.S. fiscal situation, are we really supposed to be surprised about the ugly numbers?

The President, the government, and every American citizen should be ashamed that we’re doing so little to support the men and women who protect our nation. This is the darkest scandal of the Obama administration.

This next song is dedicated to all our friends who made it back alive from the Persian Gulf …

On the Origin of Panties

Did you know that all panties are descended from a single common ancestor? Strange but true!
However, scientists are at a loss to explain the existence of the first loinwear. Louse-based estimates date the hypothesised primordial undergarment to 105,000 B.C., but fossils of the postulated intermediate A-, B-, C-, D-, E- and F-strings have never been uncovered.

As usual, one only has to consult the sacred text(ile)s to see immediately that the Bible has the answer. The Book of Genesis explains that all panties are descended from the foliage of a living plant fossil called Ficus carica. The Bible also makes it clear that panties, like viruses, do not have the ability to reproduce on their own. They rely on their host, and their host’s reproductive organs (which they symbiotically “clothe”), to make further panties.

But, seriously … what do evolutionism (the godless theories of abiogenesis and evolution by natural selection) and warmism (the theory of anthropogenic global warming) have in common? Discuss. 🙂