Here’s a story problem about a situation that doctors often encounter:
1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?
What do you think the answer is? If you haven’t encountered this kind of problem before, please take a moment to come up with your own answer before continuing.
If you think it would help, make like a constipated mathematician.
If you get the answer wrong, you’re irrational.
If you click here to find the correct answer, you’re both irrational and lazy.
(Judge not, that ye be not judged? Yeah, I already worked out the correct answer myself, thanks. :-))
In the third year of the reign of Jehoiakim king of Judah, Nebuchadnezzar king of Babylon came to Jerusalem and besieged it. And the Lord delivered Jehoiakim king of Judah into his hand, along with some of the articles from the temple of God. These he carried off to the temple of his god in Babylonia and put in the treasure house of his god.
Then the king ordered Ashpenaz, chief of his court officials, to bring into the king’s service some of the Israelites from the royal family and the nobility—young men without any physical defect, handsome, showing aptitude for every kind of learning, well informed, quick to understand, and qualified to serve in the king’s palace. He was to teach them the language and literature of the Babylonians. The king assigned them a daily amount of food and wine from the king’s table. They were to be trained for three years, and after that they were to enter the king’s service.
Among those who were chosen were some from Judah: Daniel, Hananiah, Mishael and Azariah. The chief official gave them new names: to Daniel, the name Belteshazzar; to Hananiah, Shadrach; to Mishael, Meshach; and to Azariah, Abednego.
But Daniel resolved not to defile himself with the royal food and wine, and he asked the chief official for permission not to defile himself this way. Now God had caused the official to show favor and compassion to Daniel, but the official told Daniel, “I am afraid of my lord the king, who has assigned your food and drink. Why should he see you looking worse than the other young men your age? The king would then have my head because of you.”
Daniel then said to the guard whom the chief official had appointed over Daniel, Hananiah, Mishael and Azariah, “Please test your servants for ten days: Give us nothing but vegetables to eat and water to drink. Then compare our appearance with that of the young men who eat the royal food, and treat your servants in accordance with what you see.” So he agreed to this and tested them for ten days.
At the end of the ten days they looked healthier and better nourished than any of the young men who ate the royal food. So the guard took away their choice food and the wine they were to drink and gave them vegetables instead. (NIV)
By ROBERT LAURIE – There’s a good chance that this is the most depressing statistic you’ll see all year.
According to a new Army report, as of November, 303 active-duty, Reserve and National Guard soldiers had committed suicide in 2012. During the same period, 212 men and women in uniform were lost due to combat fatalities in Afghanistan.
It’s depressing, and disgusting.
Our military has sacrificed precious blood and treasure in Afghanistan for an ill-defined, and as such probably unwinnable, war. They’ve been given an arbitrary withdrawal date which has nothing to do with the accomplishment of any military goal and everything to do with politics. While they wait to leave, they’re still forced to fight, but their Commander in Chief has offered them little in the way of an objective.
When they finally do earn a ticket home, they return to a broken, barely functional, America. The economy is in the dumper, jobs are nigh-on impossible to come by, and – as a result of their low pay – former soldiers find themselves in an extraordinarily difficult financial position. All too often, this is leading to depression, substance abuse, and suicide.
Given the lack of leadership, coupled with the reality of the U.S. fiscal situation, are we really supposed to be surprised about the ugly numbers?
The President, the government, and every American citizen should be ashamed that we’re doing so little to support the men and women who protect our nation. This is the darkest scandal of the Obama administration.
This next song is dedicated to all our friends who made it back alive from the Persian Gulf …
The old saying goes that God made men, but Sam Colt made them equal. Col. Samuel Colt’s revolver continues to serve as an equalizer. Being bigger, tougher and meaner than the next guy may not mean jack spit if the next guy carries a .357 in his waistband.
Bad attitude and big muscles make a poor match for a 200-grain lead slug.
John Birch – of no relation to the famed anticommunist – knows this well. His organization, Concealed Carry Inc., awards a free handgun every month to Chicago residents. The reason? To give citizens in the nation’s murder capital a fighting chance.
“I would feel terrible if someone needed a gun and I didn’t give him one, and they ended up dead,” said Birch, quoted in a May 26 Associated Press report.
Even though “Awards only go to people who are at least 21-years-old, have had a background check, and have completed a firearms training course,” the city of Al Capone is going ballistic over Birch’s giveaway, in which recipients are selected on the basis of an essay contest and lottery.
“I think he is encouraging violence,” said City of Chicago Attorney Mara Georges. “I think he is encouraging civil disobedience. I think he’s encouraging people to break the law,” namely a 20-year-old, citywide handgun ban.
Warned Georges, “if he’s going to violate the law, we are going to have to very, very fiercely protect our laws.”
Nearly 700 homicides happened in Chicago last year, and three-quarters of those were gun-related, according to AP. With fewer guns in fewer hands, Georges is confident the murder rate will drop.
Actually, it’s the other way around.
“Allowing citizens to carry concealed handguns reduces violent crimes,” argues John Lott in his groundbreaking book, “More Guns, Less Crime.” Further, “reductions coincide very closely with the number of concealed-handgun permits issued.” Having more guns in the hands (and inside the jacket pockets) of Americans deters violent crime, including murder.
The reason for this fact is simple: Firearms reduce the power differential between the weak and the strong, making it harder for the strong to prey upon the weak. Being strong doesn’t help much when you’re dead or wetting your pants in fear because your potential victim shoved a barrel muzzle under your nose…
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2002/06/14164/#fLqWfpdUvV7IghKV.99
One of the many important Blog posts I wanted to write last year but never had time was a commentary on the prosecution and imprisonment of the Racist Maori Radicals Tame Iti and the TuHoe terrorists after he was discovered doing military training and plotting to, Kill white New Zealanders, Kidnap John Key, and overthrow our Democratic government by ‘terrorist’ means.
Due to Police blundering, and Botched up legislation regarding Terrorism, hastily written and enacted in wake of 911, Tame iti and co escaped prosecution for their Murderous Racist scheme, Yet were convicted on various Fire arms charges and received short prison sentences.
Read about it here:
My veiw of it here:
As a person whom had spent years been warning New Zealand that the doctrines of the Indigenous rights radicals were very dangerous and would lead to violence, Tami It is actions proved me right, and many would think that I would be happy that Tame iti and co received Jail time.
For the record let me now state that I was very pleased that the Police caught Tame iti before innocent Pakeha got murdered, yet what may surprise you to know is that I was not happy at all about the charges used in the end to Jail Iti and co… ie They were not convicted for plotting murder and mayhem, but instead are serving time on various fire arms possession charges.
*In My Book Possession of Fire arms is not a crime but a Right!*
*In My Book Military training is not a crime but a Right too*
Thus for me the whole saga ended in absolute travesty, and served to buttress Evil government powers and worked against the legitimate rights and liberties of We the people of New Zealand.
In my view, because the Police failed in their prosecution of the Real crimes of Iti and co… they should have walked free.
As a Libertarian activist, I am attempting to get the right to Bare arms, and to form private militia constitutionally protected, as a defense against Tyrannical Government.
From this it ought to be obvious why I have added this as an update to my post on the coming American Civil war.
Currently We the people have our arses hanging in the breeze… just the way the Police and politicians want us and are completely defenseless and at the mercy of State Power…
They can virtually do what ever they want with us.
This raises the thorny question of what defines and distinguished Righteous Freedom fighters from Evil Terrorist plotters?
Tami Iti and co consider themselves heroic freedom fighters committed to getting Justice, and defeating an Evil and oppressive state.
Why do I deny this view of Iti and Co?
Are the distinctions between Terrorist and freedom fighter merely arbitrary… a matter of personal prejudice and opinion?
Millions believe Al Qaeda and Bin Laden are not terrorists, But Freedom fighters against tyranny too! Millions of deluded fools thing that Revolutions of Vladimir Lenin, Mao, Castro/ Che Guevara, Mugabe, etc were all heroic struggles against tyranny, when in fact they were the very opposite… they were Tyrannies in the making.
What Really distinguishes the Goodies from the Baddies?
When is it justifiable…if ever, to take up arms against a democratic state?
This is a massive subject yet a few years back I wrote a piece called ‘The Right of Revolution’ in support of Commodore Bainimarama’s Military Coup in Fiji.
Read it Here:
I explain what distinguished Bainimarama’s coup, from Rabuka’s and George Speights Coups, and it comes down to the Principles and ideals which motivate the actions.
These must be Righteous, not selfish… not motivated by bigotry… and the primary principle being ‘Political Equality for All’, and One must take care how one goes about ‘fighting for this ideal.
*Good Ends cannot justify Evil means*.
Resorting to arms must be a last resort, and only when the situation is dire and injustice Rife, and the people must be vigilant not to be sucker by the likes of the Marxists whom claim to be fighting for freedom and equality when in fact they are fighting to instill tyranny and oppression.
I will finish this post by saying that New Zealand is still in danger from violent indigenous rights radicals, many whom pose as Moderates yet whom incite Racist bigotry and Cry “Oppression!”
New Zealand is sunk deep into an Apartheid system of government which under john key is ever expanding as he plays politics, bargaining with the evil racists to swing deals and maintain power.
As we speak a Shyster Commission filled with socialists and racists is ‘Reviewing’ and making recommendations for a new Racist Constitution for New Zealand.
Voices of Freedom and equality are completely absent from this process.
This is an Evil usurpation which virtually achieves Tame iti’s ambitions …yet without recourse to arms!
And apart from a few Brave souls, like John Ansell, New Zealanders are doing nothing to stop it, or to ensure the New constitution is founded upon Equality and ensures limited Government, let alone be prepared to repair to arms if and when the Racist constitution is foisted upon us.
*And our Gun Laws have already rendered us defenseless!*
Read about this here:and here:
The reality is that in the unlikely event that Libertarians, and others like John Ansell be successful in provoking a call for the enactment of a just constitution of equality for all, New Zealand is in great danger of an Evil Armed rebellion of the same nature which Tame iti was hoping to generate… on a massive scale… driven by vile Indigenous rights Race Hatred and greed!
Don’t believe that our Gun laws are preventing the Racists from tooling up!
Tame Iti and co proved they are doing just that.
This Heinous evil… Racially motivated Civil war is waiting in the wings, in fact one could say we are already experiencing the beginning of one… as a ‘Cold’ Civil War with Indigenous Appartheid.
Welcome 2013.
My final remark is a question.
“What are you doing in defence of freedom, Justice and equality in New Zealand?
Rephrased: “Will you sell out your Childrens future to apatheid?
Tim Wikiriwhi
Christian Libertarian.
The Socialist scam is up.
America teeters on the edge of the Fiscal cliff… a National Bankruptcy of Mega Proportions, and knowing that their charade could not last forever President Barrack Obama has been preparing for collapse and Chaos.
Buying up amo and heavy armaments for the Police, FBI, Homeland security, Creating Concentration camps, and passing more and more Draconian Laws, of Search, seizure, and arrest, and Even assassination, all of which violate Constitutional protections of the peoples rights and liberties.
They have already used force to break up peaceful legal protests (the occupy movement), and used crisis to remove firearms from Law abiding citizens right when they needed them most for the own defense (Hurricane Katrina), yet His main ambition is to remove the 2nd amendment right to bear arms, via systematic accrual of prohibitive Laws… emulating the Nazis.
Using hype caused by any sensational event that terrifies the nation… school shootings, etc to rush through Tyrannical laws and Usurp Despotic powers is a time tested Machiavellian ploy of Wicked men in high places… seeking to maintain or extend their grip on power.
It works every Time.
Once spooked by some crisis, Terrified Sheeple beg the State to take away rights and liberties…to persecute and oppress.
When no crisis conveniently materializes of It’s own accord, The driven Machiavellian will orchestrate one, what is known as a false flag black op, The Reichstag fire in 1933 is a good example, The Nazis used the fire as a pretext to destroy their Political enemies… the Communists , and passed the Enabling Act …Hitler assuming the Powers of Dictator… ending Democracy.
Hitler also covertly orchestrated chaos in Czechoslovakia so that he could Invade, annex, and occupy it under the pretext of protecting the minority German population there.
It is in the light of such tactics and historical precedents, that I want to look at the Coming Civil Unrest which is about to befall America and a great portion of western civilization…any day now.
Unlike many Western populations whom have already been disarmed and left defenseless, America was born out of Armed revolution and Gun ownership is a matter of Patriotism for millions.
The Founding Fathers instilled the doctrine of ‘the Right of Revolution’… The right of the American people to take up arms against their own government if and when it becomes despotic…the only defence against tyranny being an armed and vigilant population.
Many will not surrender their arms easily… esp those whom have a healthy distrust of Government.
Since 911 and the infamous Patriot Act, Millions have been watching the systematic destruction of their constitutional rights and have been preparing to resist being dis-armed by an ever expanding Tyrannical State.
Barack Obarma Fears what the Armed population will do when the finacial collapse begins… He fears those Armed Citizens whom believe that Freedom and the constitution is worth fighting and dying for, and only hesitated from signing a UN global initiative which would violate the 2nd amendment because in doing so would have cost him his job in the coming elections.
He played Politics….biding his time….awaiting for oppotunity.
Excerpt from William Coopers ‘Behold a Pale Horse’ 1991
Was is convenient Happenstance for Obama that Anton Lanza went on a shooting spree in Newtown Connecticut December 15? He Murdered 20 School children and 8 adults, provoking outrage among the General public and esp the Anti-Gun lobbies whom want to overthrow the 2nd amendment.
Some people believe this atrocity was an orchestrated False flag Opp.
I find the idea incredulous, none the less using this Horrific event as a pretext, Barrack Obama and a bevy of Anti-gun Politicians have quickly moved to push for massive Gun restrictions, esp on Military style assault rifles… ie the sort of weapons that during a Civil War would be effective against the Government forces.
It has been reported that Anton Lanza did not use an assault rife in his killing spree, but several pistols. Police removed a rifle from the boot of his mothers car, yet this fact has not been allowed to hinder Obama and co, from pushing for Assault weapon ban.
Waco Texas 1993
We now await the coming conflict of 2nd Amendment Patriots against a Tyrannical government which has not only has brought America to it’s knees, but is also hell bent on taking away the Rights and liberties of the people.
Those who resist the Governments usurpations and refuse to hand over their weapons will be labeled Terrorists/ Enemies of the State and will be attacked by Government forces.
Remember Waco?
Many will be thrown into Concentration camps.
The rest will surrender their rights and liberties.
This is my last blog Post for 2012.
Western civilization is on the brink.
Tim Wikiriwhi
Christian Libertarian.
Did you know that all panties are descended from a single common ancestor? Strange but true!
However, scientists are at a loss to explain the existence of the first loinwear. Louse-based estimates date the hypothesised primordial undergarment to 105,000 B.C., but fossils of the postulated intermediate A-, B-, C-, D-, E- and F-strings have never been uncovered.
As usual, one only has to consult the sacred text(ile)s to see immediately that the Bible has the answer. The Book of Genesis explains that all panties are descended from the foliage of a living plant fossil called Ficus carica. The Bible also makes it clear that panties, like viruses, do not have the ability to reproduce on their own. They rely on their host, and their host’s reproductive organs (which they symbiotically “clothe”), to make further panties.
But, seriously … what do evolutionism (the godless theories of abiogenesis and evolution by natural selection) and warmism (the theory of anthropogenic global warming) have in common? Discuss. 🙂
“…I make myself unpopular here. Sorry, I just say what I experienced. Reality is not all clean and good or politically correct.
First I have to say we talk about long term survival scenario here. Few days of fearing for your life is problem, few weeks is crap, few months and more can easily take all will for survival from you and leave you empty.
It is hard to imagine and I never saw one of the “TV survival experts” do anything really long term…
…When the world breaks down around you, you want things to be normal. Even if you had bad life before in normal times it will feel like paradise to nightmare that happens outside or around you when you fight for your survival.
I do not do any drugs (besides coffee) and think drugs is for weak people… but if life slaps you around like it is hard to imagine, everyone becomes weak at some point.
So during the war marijuana was used to disconnect from horrors around you. When you find yourself with few friends in some safe building, basement, and if you have few cans of food, someone brings guitar and few bottles of alcohol and marijuana, you can start to feel an hour or two like nothing is wrong, people do not get shot outside, women do not scream in distance, peace is there again, at least for few hours, and for that small group of friends.
And when someone pass you small jar with hash „bubbles“ you can imagine almost that Jim Morrison came alive that night in that particular basement, in that small and unimportant city in Balkans, in the middle of civil war, and that he is gonna spend that night with you discussing about ridiculousness of life, and then play „The end“ song….”
Excerpt from: ‘Why drugs matter during long term survival’
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It is a testimony to the vile Bigotry that underpins the persecution of drug users that the Author of the above piece thought it necessary to apologise in advance for what he was about to say… even though it was a Humanitarian piece.
I would argue that the benefits of such drugs as Pot are not restricted to such extreme scenarios, but hold good in general for times of struggle and stress… esp for the Poor whom are the most exposed to troubles and strife, and don’t have Yachts, Batches, or Hot Rods to get a buzz and relieve stress.
Thus (as usual) the Tyrannical war on drugs is primarily a War on the Poor.
Tim Wikiriwhi.
Christian Libertarian.
